HabsWorld.net --
Going into training camp last year, Oliver Kapanen wasn’t generating much consideration for a roster spot, let alone playing in the top six. Now, after a quality rookie season, expectations are higher for his sophomore season.
2025-26
Going into training camp, it looked as if Kapanen and Owen Beck might be fighting for a spot down the middle, though on what line remained to be seen. If Alex Newhook played down the middle or Kirby Dach, maybe it was the 3C spot, maybe just as a 13th forward. Not many expected the 2C spot to be the one that Kapanen would ultimately grab hold of.
But Kapanen showed early chemistry with Ivan Demidov going back to the rookie tournament, giving him a leg up for that role. And while playing two rookies together in the top six on a team with designs of being a playoff team is usually a recipe for disaster, it ultimately worked reasonably well.
Yes, there were some concerning underlying numbers regarding how much that line was struggling in terms of possession and puck control. But the results were good enough for Martin St. Louis to give Kapanen a long leash in that role. Offensively, he averaged at least half a point per game in the first three quarters of the season before fading toward the end. His longest point drought in the first half of the season was only four games which is quite impressive. However, he had droughts of five, seven, and ten games in the back half, the latter coming in the final ten games of the regular season.
That lack of production led to Kapanen’s role being sharply reduced in the playoffs. He was a healthy scratch for 12 of the 19 games and barely played eight minutes a night when he was in. While the last few months weren’t great by any stretch, on the whole, it was a pretty solid rookie year for Kapanen.
Regular Season Stats: 82 GP, 22-15-37, +4, 22 PIMS, 1 PPG, 2 GWG, 131 shots, 14:29 ATOI
Playoff Stats: 7 GP, 0-0-0, -2, 2 PIMS, 0 PPG, 0 GWG, 5 shots, 8:20 ATOI
2 Year Averages
Considering that Kapanen only played in 18 games in 2024-25 where he had all of two assists, there isn’t really a pattern or trend to follow here. Adding those to last season’s numbers would skew the averages to the point of being useless so let’s skip this section.
2026-27 Role
It’s fair to say that there is a wide range of outcomes here for Kapanen. It is quite possible that he’s back in the role he had last season as the second-line centre. He could be moved to centre the third line. He could plausibly be a winger on a third line as well, allowing him to potentially become a little more shoot-happy. He could also be on the fourth line if they want to move one of Jake Evans or Phillip Danault up, or have both on a checking line; again, centre or the wing is an option. Or, he could be out of the lineup altogether as he was for most of the playoffs.
In a perfect world, he plays a little better and the second line outperforms their expected numbers once again, buying the Habs more time to look for a more impactful option, either on the wing or down the middle to boost that trio. More realistically, he may not have quite as long of a leash now, creating a situation where he could very well bounce around a lot in the lineup.
On special teams, Kapanen was seeing second-wave time on the power play last season and that should continue, thanks to his being one of the better shooting threats on that group. Of course, that unit doesn’t see a whole lot of playing time. What helps Kapanen from a staying in the lineup standpoint is his ability to kill penalties and take a regular turn on the second or third pairing there. With the Habs not bringing anyone in to push for time in that role (while Joe Veleno left in free agency), that makes a stronger case for Kapanen being at least somewhere in the lineup.
Projected Stats
If Kapanen stayed on the second line for most of the upcoming season, there’s legitimate offensive upside for a 40-45-point effort. His shot is certainly NHL calibre and Demidov is expected to take a step forward offensively which should set Kapanen up for most assist opportunities as his centre. That’s the best-case scenario.
To me, however, the likelier scenario is that he bounces around a bit more and he ultimately spends more time in the bottom six than he did a year ago. That makes a projection a lot tougher while also making it likely that he won’t be producing at the same rate as last season.
From a fantasy perspective, it all comes down to where you think he’ll spend the most time. If Kapanen’s on the second line, he’s probably worth a late-round flyer, especially for leagues that have shots as a category. But if you think he’s going to bounce around, he’s probably better off staying on the waiver wire. In that scenario, grab him as a plug-and-play when he’s with Demidov. That might not sound like a very valuable player from a fantasy perspective but Kapanen is someone whose real value to the NHL team will be more than his value to a fantasy team.
GP: 76
Goals: 16
Assists: 19
Points: 35
+/-: -3
PIMS: 20
PPG: 1
GWG: 1
Shots: 140
