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When the Montreal Canadiens started to turn over their management and coaching staff in the fall of the 2021-22 season, fans knew a rebuild was in the cards. When the line was that this rebuilding team was going to be “in the mix” during the team’s golf tournament last September, many fans knew that was very optimistic but unlikely to happen.

Tonight, the Montreal Canadiens begin the next step of the franchise rebuild with their first appearance in the playoffs since 2021. The HabsWorld writers provide their prognostications on the series against the Washington Capitals.

Montreal Canadiens vs Washington Capitals

Kevin Leveille predicts: Capitals in 5 games
Matt Gauthier predicts: Canadiens in 6 games
Norm Szcyrek predicts: Canadiens in 7 games
Allan Katz predicts: Canadiens in 7 games
James Turner predicts: Canadiens in 6 games
David Woodward predicts: Capitals in 5 games
Brian La Rose predicts: Capitals in 5 games

(Kevin) At first glance, this would appear to be the biggest mismatch of the first round. The Capitals are the top seed in the East; they’ve rolled all season long as they chased the goals record for Alex Ovechkin. They are bigger, have more experience, have better special teams, have a goalie that is likely to be a Vezina nominee, and have a coach that should win the Jack Adams.

So, why does it feel like the Capitals absolutely have to keep this series short and give the Habs no hope whatsoever? Is it simply a brain worm of their last series where the Habs pulled off an incredible upset? Is it the recent upstart Canadiens causing a surprise and making it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final just four years ago? Maybe it’s the fact that Montreal is playing with house money as absolutely no one saw them here to start the season.

The Habs enter this series with nothing to lose, riding what should be the Calder Trophy winner and a serious candidate for next year’s Calder. Nick Suzuki has played with a chip on his shoulder ever since the 4 Nations Face-Off, and though Samuel Montembeault wasn’t particularly excellent down the stretch, he’s shown the capacity to get hot and steal a few games.

A split in Washington would make the Bell Centre a complete zoo that the Capitals likely don’t want to navigate for games three and four, so the Capitals need to get on the Canadiens immediately. The longer the series goes, the more the young Habs will get comfortable in the setting and can cause an upset. Proceed with caution. Still, Montreal might be completely exhausted in just getting here, so I wouldn’t put any money on them or anything.

(Matt) The Canadiens charge into the playoffs with momentum and a hungry young core (the second-youngest group in the league), ready to make a statement. The veteran Capitals (eighth-oldest group in the league) might have the experience, but youth will prevail this time.

(Norm) On paper, this is a complete mismatch. Washington had the second-best record in the league with 111 points, and held on to first place for most of the season. Legendary winger Ovechkin broke Wayne Gretzky’s 894 career goal-scoring record late into the season, despite missing 18 games with a broken fibula. His 43 goals led his team (again), while center Dylan Strome led the team in points with 81.

They are a big team, with tough forwards like 6’4″ Tom Wilson who also scored 33 times, and 6’6″ Aliaksei Protas who potted 30 goals. On defence, Washington is led by John Carlson with 51 points, and Jakob Chychrun with 47 points, including 20 goals. The goaltending was split nearly evenly with Logan Thompson listed as their 1A netminder and former Hab Charlie Lindgren their 1B.

As we all know, Montreal barely made it to this postseason with a win in their final game. Captain Nick Suzuki led the way with a career high of 89 points, and linemate Cole Caufield had a personal best 70 points and 37 goals. Rookie phenom Lane Hutson led the team in points with 66, tying an NHL record for rookie assists and breaking the Canadiens rookie record for points by a defenceman. Plucky goaltender Samuel Montembeault will get his first chance to play a postseason game.

To borrow a quote from the movie Dumb and Dumber, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance!” The Canadiens must find a way to pressure the Washington defence into turnovers with their speed in the defensive zone and their forwards in the neutral zone. If they can do that, they have a chance at countering the size advantage the Capitals have over the Habs.

(Allan) While the Habs are being sighted by many experts as having a chance to beat the Capitals, the odds are bound to be long. Both teams have their identities firmly in place. The Capitals have had an extraordinary season led by the greatest scorer in NHL history. They are well seasoned and have been in the playoffs many times and know exactly what’s in store for them. The Habs are green as can be and no one has any idea which team will show up.

It has been a season of alternating between 1) Being capable and succeeding in defeating any teams regardless of pedigree and 2) Being so awful that they are in danger of being demoted to the AHL. Depending on which team shows up will decide the series and amazingly, that’s not in reference to the Washington powerhouse, but the ragtag green saplings called the Montreal Canadiens. You might argue only a homer would pick the Habs and you get no argument from me.

(James) Yep, I’m saying it. Call me a homer if you like. I honestly feel that the Habs can pull off the upset. Past behaviour is the best predictor of future behaviour, and Montreal has taken out top-seeded teams in the first round before. They did it to Boston in 2002 and to this same Capitals team in 2010. Additionally, the Capitals’ season has been driven by Ovechkin’s quest to overtake Gretzky as the NHL‘s all-time leading goal-scorer. That feat was accomplished on April 6th. Washington simply has not looked like the same dominant team that it has been for most of the season since. The Canadiens can capitalize on this, and their much younger roster could use their speed and finesse to take down the Caps. Ovechkin may not be the most fascinating Russian to watch in this series with the recent arrival of Ivan Demidov.

(David) Like many prognosticators, my record in the first round of the playoffs is nothing to be proud of and I certainly hope I am wrong on this one. However, Washington has been the better team all year. If  Montembeault delivers a Halakian performance or Demidov is Drydenseque in his first playoff, there is hope. Nonetheless, the odds are against our beloved up-and-coming young team.

(Brian) Yes, the Capitals didn’t play well down the stretch.  They also had nothing to play for and were resting players.  But Montreal didn’t play well down the stretch either, basically backing into the playoffs with some less-than-inspiring outings over the final few contests.  They’re a very tired group right now and while a four-day break should help, I don’t think that’s going to be enough to bring back the version of the team that has played well after extended rest.  I’m also quite worried about their inability to start a game; a team as talented as Washington is going to take advantage of that.  It’s nice that the Canadiens got to this point but an awful lot will need to break their way for them to have a chance in this series.  I’m not expecting that to happen.