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Last season, Cole Caufield was one of the top goalscorers in the NHL.  Can he repeat that in 2026-27 or will he take a step back in that department?

2025-26

Scorers, by nature, are generally consistently inconsistent.  They’ll get on a heater for a few weeks and that inevitably is followed up by a stretch where they might score once in the next ten games.  In the end, it generally balances out to a still productive season.  Caufield had been that type of player before.

But not last year.  Granted, this was aided by the consistent overall success of the top line and top power play unit but Caufield’s longest stretch without a goal was six games; his next longest was four.  That’s barely a week.  Needless to say, that was quite impressive.

Caufield averaged over a point per game in three of the four quarters of the season.  He didn’t in the second quarter of the year but he still had 19 points in 22 games.  Not too shabby.  He set career highs as well in power play production, finishing in a tie for 19th league-wide with 29 points.  He had only been higher than 17 once before that.  (Keep this in mind when we get to his projections at the end.)

Unfortunately for Caufield and the Habs, he scuffled in the postseason.  He only scored once in the first nine playoff games before picking up nine points in his final ten games, though again, it was largely power play dependent.  The end result point-wise was respectable but it’s fair to say that Caufield wasn’t anywhere as effective or efficient as he was during the regular season.

Regular Season Stats: 81 GP, 51-37-88, +29, 14 PIMS, 11 PPG, 12 GWG, 258 shots, 18:11 ATOI
Playoff Stats: 19 GP, 6-7-13, -10, 0 PIMS, 4 PPG, 0 GWG, 43 shots, 18:23 ATOI

5 Year Averages

GP: 72
Goals: 33
Assists: 27
Points: 60
+/-: E
PIMS: 11
PPG: 8
GWG: 7
Shots: 231

2026-27 Role

Martin St. Louis spent some time last season tinkering with the first line in an effort to balance out Montreal’s attack.  But that involved Juraj Slafkovsky moving around, not the other two.  Caufield and Nick Suzuki have effectively been joined at the hip for several years now and it’s safe to say that this should be the case for the majority of the time at even strength again.  I’d like to see Ivan Demidov get some time with Suzuki in which case perhaps Caufield moves down here and there but by and large, Caufield will remain on the top line almost exclusively.

From a special teams standpoint, there shouldn’t be much that changes as he isn’t seeing the penalty kill.  Caufield will be on the top power play unit, logging heavy minutes there.  Basically, the big question will be where he’s used.  He was in one of the faceoff circles for a while but seemed to be more of a rover or goal line player as the season went on.  Will he go back to being more of a static shooter?  That could certainly play a role in his point production with the man advantage.

Personally, if they’re going to keep him more at the goal line, I’d rather see him go to the second unit where he can be a prominent scoring threat with Noah Dobson setting him up.  That might result in a drop in his individual production but make Montreal’s power play more successful on a percentage basis.  I’m not holding my breath on St. Louis trying it but I wouldn’t mind seeing them give that a chance.

Projected Stats

Last season felt like one where everything went well for Caufield.  His shooting percentage was just under 20%, well above his career average (which was at 12.7% heading into last season).  With Montreal often being a one-line team, he was well-positioned to rack up the points, especially on the power play where the second wave became an afterthought.  It wouldn’t shock me if 2025-26 winds up being Caufield’s best career offensive performance.

That’s not to say that he won’t have a big year or be a go-to scorer once again.  Those are to be expected.  But I expect Demidov will take a big step forward, ultimately cutting away some of the offensive opportunities for Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky.  It also wouldn’t shock me if Caufield drops a few power play points as well.  Accordingly, a dip in Caufield’s production wouldn’t be shocking.

From a fantasy standpoint, Caufield should still be in the higher tier of scorers so any league that values goals over assists is one where he gets a boost.  If that league also has shots as a scoring category, move him up the rankings a bit as he’s certainly a volume shooter.  He won’t help much on the physical side so for leagues counting hits and penalty minutes, his ranking should take a hit.  His early ADP is in the late teens/early 20s which is ranking him as if his performance last season is repeatable.  Something more in the late 20s/early 30s would be a better spot for him to go, allowing for some value even if his output dips a little.

GP: 83
Goals: 44
Assists: 39
Points: 83
+/-: +20
PIMS: 16
PPG: 9
GWG: 8
Shots: 260