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For the second straight series, the Habs failed to close things out on home ice and will have to win on the road to move on. Here are seven keys to a Game Seven victory over the Sabres.
1) Start On Time: Through the first six games of the series, the Habs have allowed a goal in the first five minutes four times (and they’ve allowed one five times in the first seven minutes). That is categorically unacceptable. It’s one thing to allow an early goal every now and then; it happens. But being behind the proverbial eight-ball that often is a problem and a pattern that can’t be repeated. It’s nice to have the confidence to come back from being down early. But it’s better to simply not be down that early.
2) Stay Out Of The Box: Going into this series, Buffalo’s power play wasn’t exactly firing; they beat Boston in spite of it, not thanks to it. But Lindy Ruff made some adjustments after their first two home games and since then, they’ve scored seven times in four games, tallying in three of those four contests. The penalty kill has run hot and cold this year and right now, they’re struggling; the Sabres have a 37.5% success rate with the man advantage in this series. Keep the penalties down and take some heat off Jakub Dobes.
3) A Rebound From Dobes: No, this isn’t talking about Dobes’ rebound control, which hasn’t been as great lately. This is merely about him rebounding after an ugly Game 6, not to mention some shaky performances at times earlier in the series. We saw him at his best in Game 7 against the Lightning. Getting back to that level of performance would help give the Habs a much better chance as they can’t simply expect to outscore their struggles in a series-clinching game.
4) Shoot: We know Martin St. Louis doesn’t want the Habs firing a ton of shots. He wants them to be selective and has reminded them of that in this series after Game 4 when they had 31 shots on net. But Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (assuming he starts) has looked shaky at times to the point where some lower-percentage shots have beaten him. As we saw against Tampa Bay, it’s not necessarily the pretty shots that go in when it comes to these types of games. Get some screens going and get some shots. It’s not their typical style but that tends to be a roadmap to success in do-or-die games.
5) Shutdown Effort From The Shutdown Pair: Few players played well on Saturday but it was a particularly rough night for Mike Matheson and Alexandre Carrier. That’s especially concerning given that they’re the shutdown pairing that often logs the bulk of the work on the penalty kill. I suppose never say never with this series but this probably isn’t going to be a high-scoring game. That means the shutdown pairing needs to do its job and be much more effective in neutralizing Buffalo’s attack. They need much more from them tonight than they got in Game 6.
6) Top-Line Production: Let’s recap the five-on-five production from the top line. Cole Caufield scored in Game 5 of this series. Nick Suzuki pin-balled a shot in Game 7 against Tampa Bay (when Josh Anderson was on that line) and scored in Game 2 of this series…into an empty net, with Anderson on the line. Juraj Slafkovsky, meanwhile, has as many even-strength playoff goals as you and I do. That Montreal is at this point with the top line, one of the elite trios during the regular season, struggling so much is a minor miracle. They’ve been due for more than a while now. This trio carrying the load offensively would be a massive boost for Montreal.
7) Cross Up The Cross-Ice Passes: While I’m tempted to put something else about the offence here, I feel I need to end with another defensive key. Buffalo has figured out that backdoor plays and cross-ice passes are the key to success against the Habs. And unfortunately, Montreal’s players aren’t particularly consistent in terms of their efforts to defend that particular play. They can do it at times but they also struggle at times. This isn’t for just the blueliners either; the forwards have to be mindful as well. But disrupting the middle of the passing lane could stymie Buffalo’s attack. And while we’re at it, executing a proper zone exit after knocking down those passes would be great as well as the Sabres have made the Canadiens pay for that in this series, too.
If you’re looking for cause for optimism, the Habs are 5-2 on the road in these playoffs, something that has been largely offset by only going 2-4 at home. But Buffalo is only 2-4 at home themselves, having lost twice at KeyBank Center to both the Habs and Bruins. After getting three road games in Round One, the Canadiens will be looking to do so again tonight. Puck drop is at 7:30 PM ET on CBC, Sportsnet, and TVA Sports in Canada and on ESPN in the United States.
