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Before the season started, I expected to find one, if not two, selections for the Canadiens in this section of the draft. They have one, but both the Habs and Flames surpassed expectations so it’s the bottom of the section, with the second coming right after. This means they don’t exactly get to “choose”.
The belief is that 16 marks the “end of a tier” of prospects and I think that is accurate. This means they get to see who falls to them and hope another team sees things differently and they can end up with two on this list. Sometimes, having a player fall to you is a great thing, like Cole Caufield, for example. The player takes the drop personally and uses it to get motivated and become the best version of himself.
#9 – Brady Martin
Soo Greyhounds (OHL) – C
Start of season rank: 27 Midseason rank: 18
The six-foot pivot Martin scored 72 points in 57 games this season but likely got that high thanks to a second half that may not have been sustainable through the study of advanced stats. Still, Martin is said to possess a game that will be truly appreciated by all his coaches, as he is a complete player. This would indicate to me that he’s a player who handles the small details of the game with great consistency, meaning a high-floor selection more so than a home run swing for ceiling. He’s a physical player who never quits on a play. However, he must improve the quality of his reads in the offensive zones to help himself out of pressure situations. Most often referred to as a spark plug. He might be a safe pick, but it might be an attitude type that is needed on a team. He’s very unlikely to fall all the way to 16 for the Habs.
#10 – Jackson Smith
Tri-City Americans (WHL) – LD
Start of season rank: 22 Midseason rank: 9
The 6’3 towering left-defender might be this year’s Carter Yakemchuk in that he does absolutely everything right on the ice while not having a crazy stand-out skill. He scored 54 points in 68 games, so the production has been there. Smith uses his size very well to defend and has excellent skating when he needs it. He is prone to turnovers when pressured, so that’s the one thing he might need to clean up to access the next level. An excellent prospect at a position that isn’t truly needed for the Habs. In any case, I’d be shocked if he was still on the board come pick 16.
#11 – Roger McQueen
Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL) – C
Start of season rank: 6 Midseason rank: 7
He’s 6’5 and produced 20 points in the 17 games he’s played. He has the scouts salivating since he skates well, is plenty agile, forechecks hard, is smart with the puck, and isn’t afraid of going to the dirty areas on the ice to make things happen. So why is he falling in a majority of the mock drafts around the internet? While there are concerns about the consistency of his game, the main reason is that there was a big projectable centre that went fourth overall last year who told everyone the back issues were behind him, and then they weren’t. So, are McQueen’s back problems really behind him? Some have concerns and so the player gets passed on even if he should be higher than 11th on any list. In fact, he finds himself even lower on certain lists. Should he make it to 16 at the real draft, the Habs should not hesitate to make this home run swing. Allow me to doubt that it happens though.
#12 – Radim Mrtka
Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) – RD
Start of season rank: 20 Midseason rank: 12
In the early season ranking, I predicted this massive defender (6’6) would jump up the ranking and I’m going to do it again. I think Mrtka is selected prior to number 12. In fact, should he get past number eight, I’m hoping that the Habs will be one of the teams willing to pay a hefty price to move up and select him. He doesn’t shy away from physical play, though some scouts would like to see him initiate more often. He’s smart in all zones with his positioning which is likely the most important factor for a d-man. He also produced 35 points in 43 games, so there is some offensive potential to his game.
#13 – Carter Bear
Everett Silvertips (WHL) – LW
Start of season rank: 58 Midseason rank: 13
That’s 82 points in 56 games for the six-foot Bear who is mostly known for his ability to push the pace of play. Bear skates like the wind, is physical, and has a high motor in all situations. What was discovered at the start of the season was his intelligent play and leadership characteristics that shot him up the rankings. Bear is said to pay particular attention to the small details of the game which not only makes him stand out, but it also makes all his teammates look better just for playing with him. He’s a straight-line player, so one of the knocks on him is a lack of creativity. The other is the sustainability of the production because he cooled off before the Achilles injury that ended his season. For me, the Achilles injury is a problem. I understand that he’s going to recover, but it’s the type of injury that often ends up re-occurring or that will affect one of his premier attributes in his skating. Does that mean he never becomes impactful? No, absolutely not. He’s a safe enough pick to project him as a Gallagher replacement down the line. There’s also been much speculation that the Habs are interested, so this pick might just happen thanks to said injury. I doubt he makes it to 16 otherwise.
#14 – Lynden Lakovic
Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL) – LW
Start of season rank: 37 Midseason rank: 11
58 points in 47 games for the 6’4 Lakovic. His consistency has improved over last season, but Lakovic himself has agreed with the scouting report that questions his compete level. Lakovic said that he’s hired a sports psychologist to help him with the issue. Some scouts are holding this against him, but I look at how that helped Armia and how it could have done so even more if Armia would have been open to this treatment earlier in his career and I see a player who wants to squash that narrative about himself. Some will say that it’s because the physicality isn’t natural. To that, I’d argue that it isn’t natural for Slafkovsky either, yet he was 100% physically engaged throughout the series against the Capitals and he was very effective in being a pain for the Caps to handle. This is a player with significant size and skill who skates very well and is showing maturity in the self-evaluation of his game. The kid believes that there is significant interest from the Habs. Should he be available at 16, I sure hope the Canadiens don’t make the mistake of being spooked by potential Mantha syndrome and they pounce on this home run swing type player. It would be a mistake.
#15 – Kashawn Aitcheson
Barrie Colts (OHL) – LD
Start of season rank: 18 Midseason rank: 15
One of the older players in the draft, it seems like his offensive upside will be limited at the next level which one would not guess by looking at his 59 points in 64 games this season. What teams are really interested in is the promise of a very physical defender who is often the instigator of that style of play. His calling card will be the ability to deliver huge minutes without much trouble. As much as I’m staying away from LD in general if I’m Montreal, as much as this type of defender might be needed to balance the high-skill, high-risk style of too many defenders currently in the system.
#16 – Braeden Cootes
Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) – C
Start of season rank: 36 Midseason rank: 22
63 points in 60 games for Cootes who is a responsible centre that always gives his utmost effort on every shift. Like Suzuki, the ceiling is in question due to skating questions, but like Suzuki, he is said to play a cerebral game and his attention to detail is absolutely not in question. Should he remain available, this is definitely an interesting pick for the C-starved Habs.
