The final instalment of our 2018 Trade Odds series takes a closer look at Montreal’s forwards. While some notables have been tossed out in speculation, what is the likelihood that they actually will be dealt?
Please note that all odds are independent of each other.
Daniel Carr: 70% – It’s not very often that someone who cleared waivers earlier in the season would look like a strong bet to be moved but Carr should buck that trend. His production in limited action with the Habs should catch the eye of a few teams and it’s pretty evident that Claude Julien has no desire to play Carr unless he absolutely has to for some reason. With that in mind, a qualifying offer (assuming he avoids Group VI status) doesn’t seem too likely so they may as well get something for him now.
Jacob de la Rose: 55% – At a time where the Habs should be playing their youngsters, de la Rose is squarely behind Byron Froese in the pecking order. Clearly, the coaching staff has no confidence in the Swede and, like Carr, a qualifying offer is starting to seem iffy at this point. This feels like a spot where a swap of underperforming young players may make sense for everyone involved.
Tomas Plekanec: 45% – Based on Montreal’s place in the standings, this should be 100%. However, if Marc Bergevin thinks this season is an aberration and that Montreal will be back in contention next year (and I wouldn’t be shocked if that’s the case), he’s going to want to keep Plekanec around in the hopes of re-signing him. He is the Habs’ best trade chip but I’m starting to doubt that the team will actually move him.
Max Pacioretty: 20% – There’s a good case to be made for trading him now but the market has been watered down with players signed beyond this season. It’s looking like a buyers’ market for players in that situation and moving Pacioretty when that is the case isn’t a good idea. If a team is willing to part with a young centre with top-six upside, I’d put this higher but because there are alternative options for those teams that won’t cost that type of asset, a trade may make more sense at the draft when teams that are currently sellers may be interested in buying.
Paul Byron: 15% – Because of his contract, Byron will probably be one of the more sought-after players on the Habs leading up to the deadline. Unless Bergevin is willing to commit towards a rebuilding season in 2018-19 though, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to move him as the team will be viewing him as a key cog for next season.
Alex Galchenyuk: 10% – His name seems to perpetually be out there in trade speculation but as soon as he starts to produce, he’s typically yanked off the block (only to return when he starts to struggle). Galchenyuk has been one of Montreal’s top players over the last couple of months so I don’t think the desire is there to move him compared to what it was over the offseason and at the beginning of the year.
Andrew Shaw: 10% – He’s the type of player that playoff teams will covet and the Habs should be looking to shed the four remaining years on his over-inflated contract. However, Bergevin appears to be indicating to teams that he’s untouchable so it seems like the only way he’ll go is if someone really wants to overpay for his services. Don’t hold your breath on that happening.
Logan Shaw: 5% – Assuming no other team tried to claim him off waivers (if this happened, Montreal would have to re-waive him before they could trade him), Shaw’s play with the Habs may intrigue a team or two as he has had a bigger impact than he did with Anaheim despite playing a similar role between the two teams. If the Habs are okay with taking anything they can get in return, there’s a small chance of something happening here. I think they’re trying to evaluate him for next season still so I’m not sure the Habs will simply take a seventh-rounder if they can get one.
Brendan Gallagher: 5% – I highly doubt the Habs are shopping Gallagher but I’m going to at least allow for the slim possibility that a team sees the year he’s having (plus the team-friendly contract) and is willing to part with a young, top-six centre to get him.
Less Than 5%
Phillip Danault – With Montreal’s already-poor centre depth, it’s hard to imagine that they’d even entertain the idea of dealing Danault. A long-term contract extension in the summer is highly likely.
Nicolas Deslauriers – Any chance of him being dealt went out the window with the two-year extension he signed last week. He’ll stick around and then battle for a fourth line spot next season.
Jonathan Drouin – He hasn’t had the greatest of years but given what Montreal traded for him, they’re going to give him another season at least to see if he can turn it around.
Byron Froese – For some reason, the Habs are hesitant to put him back on waivers even though he already cleared and hasn’t done much with Montreal. No playoff teams are going to be viewing him as someone worth adding so he’ll be sticking around and should be in the battle for a roster spot next year.
Ales Hemsky – He hadn’t been playing well before his concussion and hasn’t played in months. There’s no trade market here.
Charles Hudon – His overall numbers don’t stand out but Hudon has earned the trust of the coaches to play an every-game role and with another year on his deal at the league minimum, there isn’t much of a reason for the Habs to consider dealing him.
Artturi Lehkonen – He hasn’t had a great year by any stretch which would scare off some potential suitors. Even so, Lehkonen still is a key part of the long-term future for the Habs so they won’t have much desire to deal him.
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