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Another series of five games with six out of ten points in the bank. The consistency of this team is quite remarkable but is also a curse as they seem to be unable to gather a longer series of wins to separate themselves comfortably above those fighting for a Wild Card spot.

This group of five is sour-sweet with wins over Dallas, Florida, and Calgary, but a disappointing loss over St. Louis and a missed opportunity to grab the top of the Atlantic with a win versus Detroit. Both losses were by shutout. Despite the claim that this was the game of the season versus Detroit, it is way too early to use this line.

The feeling would be quite different the morning after that game if the Habs had lost to Dallas and won versus Detroit, yet the standings would be exactly the same. The reality is that the Canadiens are able to keep up with the pace established by Tampa Bay and Detroit and fend off (at least for now) Buffalo and Toronto, who are showing signs of life. Both Toronto and Buffalo have faced weaker teams in the last few weeks but will have much tougher opponents in the coming weeks which will be decisive in their eventual chances of making the playoffs. Buffalo will be facing Montreal three times before the Olympic break, so their fate is in their own hands.

Statistically, Montreal’s defence did very well with an average of 2.4 goals allowed during the five games, a .905 save percentage, and 94% on the penalty kill. The offence has been drying up, though, with two shutout losses and an abysmal 6% on the power play with a single goal in 16 attempts.

Although Martin St-Louis seems to believe that the power play is having enough looks to remain unconcerned, it appears as though opponents have found a way to limit their efficiency by putting intense pressure on them down low while keeping Lane Hutson at bay by staying between him and the slot at all times. We should expect Montreal to counter by bringing Nick Suzuki or Ivan Demidov higher up from the half-wall, and cross over with Hutson to create a two-on-one with the opposing diamond structure.

Advanced stats presented by NHL Edge are shown below. The team continues to improve their offensive zone time and also their shots on goal ranking compared to the previous review. They are ranked fifth in offensive zone time at 5-on-5, and remain effective shooters, as they’re ranked third in shooting percentage at 12.8%.

The Habs are now eight points ahead of last year after 45 games. Last year, they went through three difficult series of games that included four three-game losing streaks (regulation time losses). The first was between games 10 and 15 (with one point in six games), the second was between games 48 and 56 (three points in nine games), and finally between games 70 and 72 (three regulation losses in a row). The second difficult series virtually erased the excellent run they had had in December and January and brought them back below 0.500.

This year, the Habs did get a similar early difficult stint of one point in five games between games 16 and 20 but they were able to grab a lot of points prior to that, which tempered its effect on the standings. The upcoming three weeks before the Olympic break will be determinant for the Habs. Keeping pace with the top teams in the East will effectively assure them of a playoff spot, barring a complete meltdown in March.

Thankfully, the team seems to have resolved their goaltending issues with Samuel Montembeault playing very well in his last three starts and Jacob Fowler providing good, stable goaltending for a very young rookie. It remains to be seen who will be sent down to Laval in the coming weeks but everything is pointing towards Jakub Dobes being the victim despite having done a good job when called upon.

Also in the good news department, the return of Kaiden Guhle in the game versus Detroit, and the imminent return of Kirby Dach and Patrik Laine will provide St-Louis with new options to improve the roster. This will inevitably force depth players to be sent down but they remain close by in Laval after being an integral part of the team’s success over the last two months. The likely candidates (Owen Beck and Samuel Blais) have clearly shown that they can be called upon if needed for the remainder of the season.