The calendar has flipped to August as we hit the unofficial midpoint of the summer. By now, we typically have a good sense of where things stand for the Habs but this time around, there are still plenty of questions remaining.
1) Why didn’t Xhekaj file for arbitration?
The biggest surprise at arbitration filing time was that Arber Xhekaj didn’t do so even though he was eligible to. Usually, when that happens, it’s a sign that contract talks are progressing and that a deal is somewhat close. The filing deadline was nearly four weeks ago and there’s still no contract in place yet.
I have a hunch that it’s not just a gap in talks but more of a chasm. My guess is that Montreal offered a small raise on the $1.3 million he made in each of the last two years. Considering his ice time dropped to a little over 11 minutes a night with very limited usage down the stretch, that type of approach would be justifiable. Yes, in a higher cap climate, the price tag is going to higher but the offer would still be reasonable. For example, he was at 1.48% of the cap when he last signed. If that was upped to, say, 1.75% (he didn’t do much to earn a big increase percentage-wise), that still only amounts to $1.82 million. I suspect their offer is somewhere near that number.
On the other hand, Xhekaj has over 200 games of NHL experience on a third pairing. Third-pairing defenders are getting more than $3 million a year on the open market, some even higher than that. Had they gone to arbitration, I have no doubt that Xhekaj’s camp would have submitted a number starting with a three for a price tag with comparables to back that up. If this is where we’re at, a million-dollar-plus difference is quite a difference to bridge.
But back to the original question, why didn’t he file? While he’s saying all the right things about wanting to stay in Montreal, one of the leverage points from not filing is maintaining eligibility for an offer sheet. If the Habs aren’t willing to go too far off their number (for someone who could be a healthy scratch at times, they’re not going to want to commit a pricey contract), perhaps the threat of an offer sheet could persuade them to do so.
I always say at this time of year that there’s no need to worry about a contract not being done yet. Get to September and then start thinking about it more. But coming into the summer, I was expecting an arbitration filing and a quick settlement after that. That something hasn’t been done is a little puzzling.
2) How long will Montembeault’s leash be in training camp?
Heading into the summer, there was some speculation (or hope disguised as speculation) that Montreal would be able to give Samuel Montembeault a fresh start. It’d be ideal for the goalie given how last season went while the Habs would presumably open up some cap flexibility and a spot for Jacob Fowler to be the backup. (Or for a new backup to come in and have Fowler start in Laval.)
The goalie carousel has started and stopped and the depth charts are pretty well filled. Veterans like Connor Ingram and Cam Talbot remain unsigned so it’s fair to say a team that might still want some goaltending insurance is probably going to simply sign one of them over trading for Montembeault. Accordingly, barring a rash of pre-camp injuries, the veteran is likely going to be at camp with the Habs.
I don’t think this is a situation where the new plan will be to waive Montembeault and have him in Laval if he clears. Instead, he’ll be given a chance to win the backup job and allow Fowler to play more minutes with the Rocket to start the season. I know the three-goalie option is there but at the start of the year, it makes more sense to have Fowler playing in Laval over burning a roster spot on a third netminder. I suspect management will feel that way as well.
We know how things went last year. Things got to the point where the coaching staff lost faith in Montembeault and I suspect Montembeault lost some faith in himself as well. Hopefully, the long reset allows him to have a strong camp. However, if that doesn’t happen, are they prepared to pull the plug quickly and pivot to Fowler (or a free agent if they want Fowler in Laval)?
3) How come Szuber hasn’t signed yet?
The Habs acquired Maksymilian Szuber in June in one of their change-of-scenery swaps (of which they’re up to four now this summer). Given that he isn’t going to contend for a roster spot, the options are pretty simple. A one-year deal at the minimum ($850,000 cap hit) or two years at the minimum ($875,000 cap hit). Add in an AHL salary and a bit of extra guaranteed money and call it a day. These are negotiations that shouldn’t take much time.
Szuber was arbitration-eligible but given that he’s basically in the same spot as Brett Berard, Jared Davidson, Hunter McKown, and the since-traded Sean Farrell in terms of contract structure, he didn’t apply (nor did the others). Again, that usually signals a deal is close but that’s not the case.
What’s the holdup here? Is Szuber unhappy with his trade (he’s going from one team where he had no chance of NHL ice time to another team where he’s in the same boat) and not signing in the hopes of another swap happening? I think Farrell took this tactic to get moved to Anaheim. Or is Szuber looking for overseas options? It can’t be a big disagreement on guaranteed money; prolonged negotiations for players like him don’t happen over $20,000 or so. I’m curious as to what’s taking so long here.
4) How much of the holdup with Bolduc is out of his hands?
Now, let’s talk about Zach Bolduc, another restricted free agent. Unlike Xhekaj, arbitration wasn’t an option and oftentimes, talks with these players can take a while. I’m sure there are multiple concepts of an offer, a short-term bridge, a medium-term pact that maybe buys a UFA year, and a long-term one. And given how crazy contracts have gotten in recent weeks, I think the latter is probably off the table.
But how much of this stalemate of sorts is out of his hands? If the Habs don’t do anything else this summer beyond re-signing their own players, they can afford a medium-term deal. It’ll be a price tag that probably makes a lot of fans cringe thanks to the state of the market but they could afford something starting with a five. On the other hand, they can’t make that commitment while holding out hope of a trade or free agent acquisition. They can’t re-sign Bolduc to a four-or-five-year deal, re-sign Xhekaj, and add another player of consequence and afford it all on the cap.
Accordingly, as long as there are trade talks, is it Montreal’s management holding things up on the contract front? It wouldn’t shock me if this were the case.
We know Xhekaj’s next deal will be a short-term pact; neither side is going to want to commit long-term given his ice time last season. They realistically have a pretty good idea of about where his price tag should come in. But Bolduc is another story; he is someone they view as part of a secondary core. The variance in price tag between a short-term pact and a medium-term agreement is still pretty sizable, probably a couple of million dollars per season. Until they know how the rest of the summer goes, can they pick their direction with Bolduc? Or will both sides have to wait until closer to training camp?
5) If there isn’t an addition of significance, what becomes the plan?
While the belief is that the Canadiens are still aiming high to try to add a core player, it seems rather unlikely to happen. There aren’t many core players available at this time of the offseason and with the trade market being what it has been this summer, the acquisition price would be on the high side. No doubt that management has its ear to the ground to see if someone shakes loose but I suspect they’re more hoping than expecting it will actually happen.
So, what’s Plan B? Is there a Plan B? Do they look in free agency for a stopgap winger on a short-term deal (Vladimir Tarasenko, Michael Bunting, and Eeli Tolvanen would fit to various degrees) and target an incremental upgrade? They could do that, sign Bolduc to a bridge deal, re-sign Xhekaj, and still have at least some cap space remaining for in-season needs and trades. No, it wouldn’t be the core upgrade but any improvement is beneficial.
On the other hand, there’s a case to make that sticking with the status quo would work too. They could give Bolduc the longer contract, re-sign Xhekaj, and have some flexibility left in-season. Or bridge Bolduc and have a lot of cap space free to start the year. (With another season with high performance bonus exposure, that’s something to keep in mind if they want to avoid an overage penalty.)
Those are certainly more boring approaches but there’s something to be said for continuity. If the only roster change is maybe a new 13th forward, there’s no starting back at the basics in learning the system; everyone already knows it. In a compressed training camp, there’s some value in that, too.
Obviously, Plan A is to try to land a big fish. But if that doesn’t happen, I’m curious to see if they think a small upgrade is better than in-season cap flexibility. It may take another month and a half to see the answer to this one.