For the second straight series, the Habs haven’t made it easy on themselves. They lost twice at home but won on the road in Buffalo, forcing another Game 7 as they look to keep their season alive.
The Week That Was
May 12: Sabres 3, Canadiens 2 – There was a theme that started early this week, Buffalo scoring first and then the Habs coming back. That happened here thanks to a Nick Suzuki power play goal in the dying seconds of the first period to give the home side the lead. However, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen shut the door from there, paving the way for the Sabres to score a pair of power play markers while the penalties piled up on both sides. With no response, Buffalo was able to tie the series.
May 14: Canadiens 6, Sabres 3 – This time, it only took the Sabres two minutes to open up the scoring but again, the Habs were able to tie it quickly. They gave up just as quickly, then tied it again about as quickly as it took for you to read this sentence. Jakub Dobes then coughed up a clunker but stayed in the game. That proved to be a wise decision as he shut the door from there. Meanwhile, Montreal scored three times in the second to chase Luukkonen while Ivan Demidov potted his long-awaited first playoff goal in the third to give the Habs the series lead once more.
May 16: Sabres 8, Canadiens 3 – The Sabres struck in the opening minute of this one as the Habs continue to not start well. But once again, they tied it up quickly, adding two more including a shorthanded marker from Jake Evans to end Alex Lyon’s night early. But Buffalo pushed back hard and Montreal had no match for it. The Sabres put up seven unanswered while the Canadiens couldn’t get anything going offensively. What looked like a great start to a series clincher turned into a disastrous game that forces another do or die Game 7.
StatPack
Skaters:
| # | Player | GP | G | A | +/- | PIMS | SOG | ATOI |
| 8 | Mike Matheson | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 4 | 23:28 |
| 13 | Cole Caufield | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10 | 18:03 |
| 14 | Nick Suzuki | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 5 | 21:33 |
| 15 | Alex Newhook | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 10 | 8 | 15:44 |
| 17 | Josh Anderson | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 | 5 | 15:02 |
| 20 | Juraj Slafkovsky | 3 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 2 | 10 | 20:04 |
| 21 | Kaiden Guhle | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 2 | 18:27 |
| 24 | Phillip Danault | 3 | 0 | 2 | E | 2 | 0 | 14:16 |
| 45 | Alexandre Carrier | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 18 | 1 | 19:20 |
| 48 | Lane Hutson | 3 | 0 | 4 | E | 4 | 2 | 24:21 |
| 53 | Noah Dobson | 3 | 0 | 0 | E | 0 | 4 | 23:17 |
| 71 | Jake Evans | 3 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 14 | 2 | 15:37 |
| 72 | Arber Xhekaj | 3 | 1 | 0 | E | 12 | 1 | 6:05 |
| 76 | Zachary Bolduc | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 0 | 11:03 |
| 77 | Kirby Dach | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 10 | 7 | 9:47 |
| 85 | Alexandre Texier | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5 | 12:50 |
| 90 | Joe Veleno | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 1 | 8:52 |
| 93 | Ivan Demidov | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12 | 16:54 |
Goalies:
| # | Player | Record | GAA | SV% | SO |
| 32 | Jacob Fowler | 0-0-0 | 7.16 | .500 | 0 |
| 75 | Jakub Dobes | 1-2-0 | 4.30 | .868 | 0 |
Playoff Team Leaders:
Goals: Alex Newhook (6)
Assists: Lane Hutson (11)
Points: Nick Suzuki (13)
+/-: Jake Evans (+8)
PIMS: Kaiden Guhle (30)
Shots: Juraj Slafkovsky (37)
News And Notes
– The Habs have a team success rate of nearly 55% at the faceoff dot in the postseason, led by Jake Evans at 59.3%. Aside from Alex Newhook, every Hab who has taken at least five draws is above their regular-season average. This, of course, is skewed by Tampa Bay and Buffalo being two of the weaker teams at the dot but this has certainly helped Montreal in these playoffs.
– Saturday’s loss was the first time in franchise history that the Habs held a multi-goal lead in a potential series-clinching game and went on to lose.
– While Juraj Slafkovsky is tied for third on the team in scoring (which is around where he should be), he has been rather erratic in the playoffs. He has scored in just two of 13 games and has points in just five of 13. But mixed within those zeroes are a pair of three-point outings to keep his production rate relatively close to his season numbers.
Last Game’s Lines:
Caufield – Suzuki – Slafkovsky
Texier – Danault – Anderson
Newhook – Evans – Demidov
Bolduc – Veleno – Dach
Matheson – Carrier
Hutson – Dobson
Guhle – Xhekaj
Semi-Final Thought
I think the time has come to start to be a little worried about Jakub Dobes. Yes, he played a huge role in them getting past Tampa Bay, including him standing on his head in the final two games of that series especially. Regardless of how Monday’s Game 7 goes, he deserves a lot of credit for helping the Habs to get to this point.
But his strong opening round has helped hide his struggles through this series, although there’s no disguising an ugly Saturday night performance to keep the series going. He has allowed 19 goals on 164 shots in this series, which equates to an .884 SV%. If you’re a believer in Goals Saved Above Expected, he’s at +1.43, per Evolving Hockey. For context, Dobes had a mark of +8.55 in the first round. In essence, he went from being great to being abjectly mediocre on the whole in the second round.
Goalies can certainly run hot and cold like scorers are and while I’m sure he wouldn’t admit it publicly, fatigue is probably playing a big role here. His positioning isn’t as sharp, nor is his rebound control. There have been puck tracking issues as well. These are signs of a tired goalie. It’s certainly understandable as he’s not used to this time of situation where he’s playing every other day for a month. If he can summon up one more big game to help the Habs move on, they may have to give some serious consideration to spot-starting Jacob Fowler early in the next round, just to give Dobes an extra couple of days of rest. It’s risky, but it might be worth it over a long series.
Final Thought
Here we are again with another Game 7 where both teams will be fighting to keep their season alive. But how we got to this point is very different.
Buffalo has shaken up its power play units, swapped out starting goaltenders, and in Game 6, overhauled the forward lines. They’ve also had three different defencemen in the number six spot and three different fourth-line centres. Lindy Ruff hasn’t been hesitant to try to mix things up and adjust to what the Habs are doing.
Montreal, on the other hand, hasn’t done much on the adjustment side. There was a bit after Game 1 in terms of opening things back up after a tight-checking series against the Lightning. Joe Veleno became the little-used fourth liner instead of Brendan Gallagher. And, well, that’s about it. For better or worse, the Habs have gone ‘this is us, try and stop us’. Buffalo has figured out some ways to break down the defence and penalty kill but as of yet, the Habs haven’t changed anything to try to counter that.
I’ll be curious to see if they make a tweak or two for Monday to try to catch the Sabres off guard, much like the new lines likely did to the Habs in that game. Otherwise, the Canadiens will be trying to win the chess match of a series by simply moving a couple of pawns. It’s definitely an interesting approach and is one we don’t see too often from anyone in the playoffs. We’ll find out soon enough if that approach is the right one.