For the second time in a row, the Habs’ five-game performance was overshadowed by a frustrating loss to the San Jose Sharks 4-2 in Montreal on Saturday. The Habs lost both games this season to the Sharks, which is the only team that they were unable to earn points this year. It is not that surprising to see them struggle against a team that looks a lot like them, a fast, young team with outstanding offensive creativity but struggling defensively. Both teams have been able to outscore their problems most of the time.
That said, the Habs collected a total of seven points out of ten in the five-game sequence, continuing to consistently earn more than their share of available points.
Statistically, the Habs have been better defensively, although the sequence started with a 6-5 OT loss to the Anaheim Ducks. This would be the last game with Montembeault in net. Unsurprisingly, the team’s defensive numbers improved significantly in Save Percentage, Goals Allowed, and Penalty Killing in the four subsequent games without reducing the shots against per game.
The team’s offence has also slowed down in the last four games, but they have been able to win tighter, low-scoring games thanks to much better goaltending from Jakub Dobes and the recently called-up Jacob Fowler.
Advanced stats presented by NHL Edge are shown below. They have been better in Offensive Zone Time in the recent sequence, which is in line with their better defensive play. The Canadiens have always been a top team in Goals For Above Expected this year, thanks to their Shooting Percentage being the highest in the league. Their Goals Against Above Expected has been close to zero for the season but reached -3.34 in the last 10 games thanks, in part, to better goaltending.
Compared to last year, the Habs are 13 points ahead after 65 games. The team reached 82 points on April 5th last year, in game No. 76. With 17 games remaining, they are within nine points of last year’s total.
The big news this week was the call-up of Jacob Fowler and also the trade that brought Ottawa goalie Hunter Shepard to the Laval Rocket. This minor trade, coupled with the recall, suggests that the Canadiens can now keep Fowler in Montreal for the remainder of the season and the subsequent playoffs.
Statistically, over the 11 games where Fowler was in goal, he has been much better than both Montembeault and Dobes, and it’s not even close. In fact, for goaltenders with 10 or more starts, he stands among the top 15 goaltenders in the league in many statistics and much higher on more specific categories such as Save Percentage on High Danger Shots (second), and Save Percentage on Medium Danger Shots (tenth). Of course, 11 games is a small sample size compared to other goaltenders in the league and, as is always the case for rookies, consistency may be an issue from time to time. His poise in net and positioning has been stellar so far, and he brings confidence to the rest of the team, enabling them to play without the fear of an incoming bad goal allowed.
For the fans, the remainder of the season will be yet another goalie battle, ala Halak vs Price for the starter position during the playoffs. If the playoffs started tomorrow, the decision would be difficult as one could argue for either Dobes or Fowler. The latter shows poise and has much better advanced statistics, but Dobes has a knack for getting the wins despite not always being pretty.
There hasn’t been much change in the standings during the last five games. The Habs remain consistent, and the Sabres continue to dominate the league as of late. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Boston have been struggling, and the Columbus Blue Jackets are getting dangerously close to the two Wild Card spots. Although still five points back, the Ottawa Senators have not given up hope and continue to climb thanks to better goaltending from Linus Ullmark.