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Four years ago, the Habs hoped they had their second-line centre in Kirby Dach. Now, it feels like he’s getting his final chance. Will that result in the breakout year both sides have long been seeking?
2025-26
Lost in how things went later on is that Dach actually had a decent start to last season. He had five goals and two assists in 15 games which doesn’t sound like much but that was a 27-goal pace. Had that been sustained, that would have been exactly the type of secondary scoring that the Canadiens were coveting.
Of course, that’s not how it went. Instead, he fractured his foot in mid-November, causing him to miss 31 games. Considering how inconsistent he can be on the ice, it seems like Dach’s biggest consistency is getting injured. And that isn’t the attribute you want to be consistent at.
Dach was able to return to the lineup in late January and once again, the numbers weren’t half bad. He had six points in a dozen games after coming back which is good middle-six production. But he wasn’t quite the same after Olympic break and then once again, he was injured. This time, it was an upper-body injury that wasn’t as severe as the foot one but it kept him out for 11 games. Dach may have exacerbated the problem by coming back too soon; he admitted after the playoffs he wasn’t fully healthy when he returned.
Unfortunately for the Habs, that proved to be an issue in the playoffs. While he did score four goals, his overall play was waning to the point where he was basically only trusted with limited fourth-line minutes and was benched multiple times mid-game.
Montreal managed to take advantage of the injuries, so to speak, with his qualifying offer. He missed enough time to only need a two-way offer. The Canadiens were able to leverage that into Dach taking a bit less than his qualifying number to get a guaranteed one-way contract. That it took that type of finagling demonstrated that his stock has certainly fallen within the organization.
Regular Season Stats: 37 GP, 8-7-15, -2, 31 PIMS, 0 PPG, 0 GWG, 47 shots, 13:39 ATOI
Playoff Stats: 19 GP, 4-1-5, -1, 20 PIMS, 0 PPG, 0 GWG, 19 shots, 10:28 ATOI
5 Year Averages
Given that Dach had a two-game season in 2023-24, that skews the numbers a little too much. Accordingly, that season has been removed from the five-year sample to give a better picture of what his production has been like.
GP: 56
Goals: 10
Assists: 15
Points: 25
+/-: -13
PIMS: 37
PPG: 2
GWG: 1
Shots: 88
2026-27 Role
The best way to start this section might actually be with a question: How much do the Habs still view Dach as part of their core? The answer to that question may go a long way toward dictating how he’s deployed this season.
If they still believe in him, he will likely get a chance in the top six before too long. At the moment, the 2C spot remains a giant wild card, one that is likely to see several players cycle through it. Dach has had some chemistry as a winger on Nick Suzuki’s line in the past so it would stand to reason he’d get a chance there at some point as well when Martin St. Louis wants to balance his top six, even if just for a brief period. Yes, there would still be some bottom-six time as well but if they believe in Dach still potentially being an impactful secondary core piece, he’s going to get the chance to live up to that expectation.
On the other hand, if they just re-signed him to save face from letting him walk for free or to use as salary ballast in a midseason trade, he’s likely to be more of a full-timer in the bottom six. He’d still shift between centre and the wing at times but the playing time would certainly be more limited overall.
From a special teams standpoint, Dach saw some secondary power play usage last season and that seems likely to continue. If nothing else, he can be a big net-front presence but his overall production there would be minimal. Playing time shorthanded has been non-existent and while it would certainly boost his utility if he could play there, it doesn’t feel like something the Canadiens should be experimenting much with this season.
Projected Stats
We thought last season had a lot at stake for Dach. This season has even more. It truly feels like he’s in a last-chance situation with the Habs and if his production stays around the level it has been, he won’t be viewed too highly in free agency beyond being a big reclamation project. (And he could live off that for a few more years.) But a breakout year could bolster his offers on the open market considerably or even earn him another chance with the Canadiens. While some don’t take advantage of a contract year, I think we’ll see things swing a bit in the right direction for Dach.
Having said that, a step in the right direction is staying relatively healthy and putting up respectable depth scoring numbers. That’s at least something to try to build off of in contract talks.
From a fantasy perspective, Dach is more of a waiver wire pickup than someone to draft and hold. I expect he will get some top-six opportunities and a bit of time on the top line and those are the times to consider a short-term speculative flyer. He doesn’t shoot or hit enough to raise the floor so it’s either find the right opportunities for him to put up points and grab him then or keep him on the wire. But as far as the upcoming season goes, he’s an intriguing X-factor for the Habs nonetheless.
GP: 67
Goals: 15
Assists: 17
Points: 32
+/-: -11
PIMS: 42
PPG: 2
GWG: 1
Shots: 107
