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On a team that had a few breakout performers last season, Jakub Dobes becoming a starting goalie certainly stood out. Now, entering camp fresh off a contract extension, what should be expected from Montreal’s starter?
2025-26
The best way to look at Dobes’ regular season is to break it into two distinct sections. The first is with Eric Raymond as goalie coach and the second is with Marco Marciano as goalie coach. With Raymond, Dobes was picking up the wins on a regular basis; he was a solid 16-5-3. However, he had a 2.96 GAA and a .890 SV%, numbers that were below average. Between he and Samuel Montembeault, neither was playing well enough to really step up and earn a long look as the starter.
Then came the change to Marciano in late January. After that point, Dobes was still winning at about the same clip (Montreal’s offence slowed down as the year went on) but his numbers were much better, a 2.57 GAA and a .914 SV%. That save percentage would have ranked third overall had it been maintained over a full season. With his level of play being elevated, he started to get the bulk of the workload down the stretch, even with Jacob Fowler now up as the backup netminder.
Dobes was able to carry over his strong finish to the season into the playoffs where he was arguably Montreal’s MVP. There were moments when the offence wasn’t doing much but Dobes routinely made several big, timely saves to give them a chance to win. He struggled against Carolina when the team ran out of gas but really, who didn’t? And given the volume of shots he was facing, I don’t think anyone was too critical with fatigue setting in.
The Habs clearly feel this level of play is repeatable (or close to it) as they gave Dobes a three-year contract extension this summer, meaning he’s now signed for four more years. That’s a big vote of confidence, especially with their perceived goalie of the future (Fowler) probably not far away from pushing for playing time himself.
Regular Season Stats: 43 GP (42 starts), 29-10-4 record, 2.78 GAA, .901 SV%, 0 SO
Playoff Stats: 19 GP, 9-10 record, 2.66 GAA, .908 SV%, 0 SO
2 Year Averages
Considering that Dobes only played a half season in his first year with the Canadiens, it would largely skew the numbers. Accordingly, we’ll skip this section.
2026-27 Role
There are question marks surrounding Fowler and Montembeault heading into the season. Will they carry three goalies again or two? If the latter, will Montembeault stay up to allow Fowler to play more or will they go with their ‘A’ group which would be Fowler as the second-string option?
Those questions don’t exist with Dobes. Heading into training camp and the regular season, he has a clear grip on the starting role. If things don’t go quite as planned early on in the season and Fowler is making a big push, Dobes could see his role change as the year goes on but a little more than a month from now, he’ll be the opening night starter barring injury.
Projected Stats
Beyond the usual talk of small sample size variance which is certainly reasonable here, there’s also the matter of games played. Going back to even his junior days, he has reached the 50 games played mark once, that being his rookie season in Laval where he made it to 51 and faded down the stretch from overuse. Last season, he was worn down late in the playoffs. Again, understandable given the circumstances but how can the Habs try to mitigate that?
One way to do it is to not crank up his regular season action by as much as it might seem they should at first glance. In an 84-game schedule, the better starters will be in the 55-60-game range ideally, more if the backup is really struggling. While Dobes should get more than 43 starts, it may only be a few more, keeping him around 50. A lot will depend on Fowler and if his play warrants regular action or whether the plan is to have Montembeault as the regular backup and spot-start Fowler periodically. But I wouldn’t be expecting a big jump in playing time for Dobes.
If the tandem is Dobes and Fowler, the ratio could be fairly tight, say 47 starts to 37 for Dobes. But if Montembeault is the backup, it could be more like 50 for Dobes, 25 for Montembeault, and nine for Fowler getting spot starts from Laval. Depending on when your draft is, you might have to make a guess on which option the Habs are going to go with and adjust your rankings accordingly.
But Dobes is an intriguing selection. With how things went last season as a whole, his overall numbers were pretty pedestrian. He doesn’t have to play as well as he did down the stretch last year to still improve on those. And if he can improve even a bit, he’s probably pushing near the top ten in fantasy value for netminders (which isn’t the same thing as saying he’s a top ten goalie). There’s a bit of risk with a still limited track record but there’s definitely some upside to taking Dobes as well.
GP/Starts: 50 (49)
Wins: 27
Losses: 15
OT/SO Losses: 7
GAA: 2.72
SV%: .907
SO: 1
