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The Habs and Point Shares
The Habs and Point Shares(2011-04-08 16:07 posted by B. La Rose)

(Note: Points as of Game 81 vs Ottawa.)

Everyone knows Carey Price is the Habs' undisputed MVP of the 2010-11 season.  But how much of the success is attributable to him compared to someone like Tomas Plekanec, the top point getter, or Brian Gionta, the top goal scorer?  Fortunately, there is a metric out there that can quantify just how many points Price and every other player has brought to the table.

The system is called point shares.  More or less, it takes goals and marginal goals created into play for skaters, shots faced and goals allowed for goalies, and time on ice with goals against for defencemen.  This is a real simplified version, I suggest reading more about point shares from hockey-reference.com where the data is coming from.

The information below is broken into 3 categories, offensive point shares (OPS), defensive point shares (DPS), and total point shares (TPS).  (Goalie shares are in the total category as they're separate from the offensive and defensive ones).  For more information including the formulas used, check the link above.  Here are the results from the Habs:

Player  OPS  DPS  TPS
Carey Price  0 0 15
P.K. Subban  3.8 3.5 7.3
Roman Hamrlik  2.2 4.7 6.9
Tomas Plekanec  4.1 2.2 6.3
James Wisniewski  3 2.6 5.6
Brian Gionta  3.3 2.1 5.4
Mike Cammalleri  3.8 1.6 5.4
Andrei Kostitsyn  3.5 1.7 5.3
Jaroslav Spacek  0.6 3.4 4
Benoit Pouliot  2.2 1.3 3.4
Mathieu Darche  2.2 1.1 3.3
Max Pacioretty  2.5 0.7 3.2
Jeff Halpern  1.5 1.4 2.9
Hal Gill  -0.5 2.9 2.4
David Desharnais  1.8 0.6 2.4
Alex Auld  0 0 2.3
Yannick Weber  0.4 1.7 2.2
Alexandre Picard  0.4 1.7 2.1
Scott Gomez  0.6 1.2 1.9
Josh Gorges  0 1.6 1.6
Paul Mara  0.1 1 1.1
Lars Eller  0.1 0.9 1
Andrei Markov  0.3 0.6 0.8
Travis Moen  -0.6 1.1 0.6
Maxim Lapierre  0.2 0.3 0.4
Ryan White  -0.1 0.5 0.3
Brent Sopel  -0.2 0.3 0.1
Ryan O'Byrne  -0.1 0.1 0.1
Aaron Palushaj  -0.1 0.1 0
Andreas Engqvist  -0.1 0 0
Nigel Dawes  -0.1 0 0
Brendon Nash  0 0 -0.1
Dustin Boyd  -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
Tom Pyatt  -1.1 0.7 -0.4

Now, the sum of the PS doesn't equal the Habs' current point total of 94 (it totals 92.6) but note that all numbers are rounded (which also means that the sum of OPS and DPS may slightly differ from TPS by a tenth here and there) while there is also a small allowance for errors which is noted in the link above.  At 92.6, it's pretty close though.  For players like Wisniewski and Mara who have played on multiple teams, their contributions from the table are only from their play with the Habs. 

As we can see, Price is responsible for 15 of the 92.6 points from the table, or 16.2% of the total.  For those wondering, there are only 2 goalies in the league with a higher rating, Cam Ward (16.6) and Tim Thomas (15.7).  Hamrlik's recent Jacques Beauchamp trophy seems justified here as he is responsible for the 3rd most points yet has received little recognition for it.  At the other end of the spectrum, Tom Pyatt's continued struggles offensively have been costly as his defensive performance hasn't made up for the relative ineptness in the offensive end.  As he's not that far from 0 overall, you can't really say he has been a terrible liability either.

Of course, this doesn't take into effect cap hits to see which player is providing most 'bang for the buck.'  Using the trusty HW Capsheet, we can consider that side as well by dividing the cost to date (as of April 8th) by total point shares; the lower the cost per point share, the better value for the money.  Here are those results:

Player  Cap Hit TPS Cap Hit/PS
P.K. Subban  $865,591 7.3 $118,574.16
David Desharnais  295,699 2.4 123,207.88
Mathieu Darche  494,624 3.3 149,885.96
Max Pacioretty  572,419 3.2 178,881.05
Carey Price  2,720,430 15 181,362.01
Paul Mara  205,645 1.1 186,950.15
Jeff Halpern  593,548 2.9 204,671.86
Yannick Weber  486,694 2.2 221,224.34
Alexandre Picard  593,548 2.1 282,642.09
James Wisniewski  1,782,258 5.6 318,260.37
Benoit Pouliot  1,335,484 3.4 392,789.37
Alex Auld  989,247 2.3 430,107.53
Andrei Kostitsyn  3,215,054 5.3 606,613.92
Josh Gorges  1,088,172 1.6 680,107.53
Ryan White  218,495 0.3 728,315.40
Tomas Plekanec  4,946,237 6.3 785,116.91
Roman Hamrlik  5,440,860 6.9 788,530.47
Lars Eller  836,738 1 836,738.02
Brian Gionta  4,946,237 5.4 915,969.73
Hal Gill  2,225,806 2.4 927,419.35
Jaroslav Spacek  3,792,115 4 948,028.67
Maxim Lapierre  411,290 0.4 1,028,225.80
Mike Cammalleri  5,903,226 5.4 1,093,189.96
Ryan O'Byrne  177,195 0.1 1,771,953.40
Travis Moen  1,483,871 0.6 2,473,118.28
Scott Gomez  7,278,034 1.9 3,830,544.11
Brent Sopel  551,971 0.1 5,519,713.30

Note that for players who have less than 1 TPS, their ratio exceeds their cap hit since the player is below 1 TPS; the ratio shows how much cost it would take for the player to reach 1.  I removed the minor league callups plus Markov who has been out most of the year so his ratio is too heavily skewed, as well as Boyd and Pyatt as their negative TPS stats yielded negative ratios.

Not surprisingly, most of the cheaper players inhabit the top few spots as Subban, 2nd in total TPS, is the most efficient while productive callups in Desharnais and White are also at the top.  Mara has brought some surprising value since his acquisition as well, not bad for the cost of a mid-round draft pick.  In the bottom 5 we see Gomez and Cammalleri, a pair of struggling offensive players though the former's ratio is much worse than the latter.  Sopel hasn't been much of an impact player as evidenced by his ratio being 10x greater than his cap hit to date.

For those wondering what players acquired by the Habs midseason had for point share ratings with their old teams, here are their numbers:

Brent Sopel (ATL): 2.4
James Wisniewski (NYI): 1.9
Paul Mara (ANA): 0.9
Nigel Dawes (ATL): -0.3

So there you have it, a compilation of just how much each player who has suited up for the Habs has contributed to their success in the standings this season, as well as a look at how efficient they've been relative to their cap hit.  Going through all the numbers, there was really only one that jumped out at me as being particularly surprising, that being Andrei Markov who, in just 7 games of action, nearly contributed a full point to the Habs' total.  Almost makes you wonder what could have been had he been healthy all season...

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