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HW Trade Deadline Preview: Part 1
HW Trade Deadline Preview: Part 1(2010-02-26 13:52 posted by B. La Rose)

With the trade deadline now less than a week away and the roster freeze set to expire on Monday, it's time to look at what the Habs' next move(s) might be.  Today, we focus on the goalies and defencemen, who of these players could be on the move by Wednesday?  What are the odds that either of the goalies will have a new home?

As I've done for the last few seasons, the players will receive a rating between 1-10 on the potential likelihood of being moved, based on a combination of performance, perceived interest elsewhere, and the salary cap.  Let's start with the goalies.  Note: Notable Hamilton players will be covered in this week's HW Recap.

Goalies

Carey Price3 - Despite the fact that Bob Gainey is no longer GM, there's likely still a prominent place for Price in the organization.  He's shown the upside and is just 22.  But, given his play this season, teams won't be willing to pony up fair value for him which means the best play is to keep him for now rather than take a lesser return.

Jaroslav Halak:  3 - Unlike Price, Halak's play this year puts his value at an all-time high which suggests that if you want the best value, he's the goalie you deal.  However, considering it's been on the back of Halak that the Habs are currently sitting in a playoff spot, it seems doubtful that GM Pierre Gauthier moves him now unless there is a significant asset or two coming back.

Defence

Paul Mara8.5 - A veteran defender with playoff experience and an expiring contract, heck, it sounds as if this would be the type of d-man Gauthier would be interested in acquiring.  However, with Mara's role diminished and the fact that the Habs can't afford to be carrying extra players unless absolutely necessary, he's a luxury the team can't afford to keep.  He'll have one game to show the league he's back in shape...provided he's not dealt by then.

Ryan O'Byrne:  5 - His play in the weeks before the Olympic break did wonders for his trade value and with the team looking to be buyers (at least that's the pulse emanating from the Dominic Moore pickup earlier), he could be a young piece going the other way as part of a return.  It should also be noted that there's somewhat of a 'poison pill' in his contract that will require him to be qualified for $1.4 million after next season despite a cap hit of just under $950,000 so there may be some motivation there also.

Hal Gill4 - A relatively short-term deal (one more season) at a somewhat reasonable rate ($2.25 M) means that the team will receive inquiries about him prior to Wednesday.  Being a recent Cup winner doesn't hurt either.  That being said, the Habs like him for his leadership and penalty killing abilities, so they'll be in no hurry to deal him out.  That being said, they may listen more intently than for other d-men appearing below him.

Roman Hamrlik3.5 - It's been a strong rebound season for the Czech blueliner which is the sole reason this deal isn't considered to be completely unmovable.  The market for him would be extremely limited because of the cap situation (particularly the $5.5 M next season) but if a contending team thinks he's part of the equation, the Habs may be able to wiggle somewhat out of this contract.  I say somewhat as Montreal almost assuredly would have to take some sort of contract back in return.

Jaroslav Spacek3  - He's struggled, no need to sugarcoat it.  Playing on his wrong side certainly hasn't helped much either.  That being said, he's still an NHL calibre d-man and a team may think that his career could be resurrected elsewhere.  Finding that team may be easier said than done.  The Habs may want to move him, but his contract will make that quite the difficult task.

Andrei Markov2.5 - He wasn't playing well before the Olympics and did not look good during them.  Add that to the fact that he played hurt for Russia but didn't for Montreal and some dissenting whispers may be coming from inside the organization.  That all said, he's still the franchise player which means they would need a major return for him, one they're not likely to be offered.

Marc-Andre Bergeron:  2 - He has the lethal shot every team covets.  Problem is, he has an injury that no one wants.  The fact that he's out 3 more weeks all but kills any shot at other teams making a serious pitch at him.

Josh Gorges1.5 - He's been the unsung hero virtually all season for the Habs.  Considering the fact that he can play with almost any defender on the team at a pretty good cap hit ($1.1 M), he's pretty safe unless a lot of other moves are made first.

Cap Effects

The Habs already have $19.375 million committed for next season on the blueline, not including prospects such as P.K. Subban, Yannick Weber, or Mathieu Carle, the latter being an RFA this summer.  In goal, there's nothing committed for next year as both are restricted free agents.  With the way each has played this season, Halak is looking at a major increase from the $775 K cap hit he has currently while Price is likely in line for a small raise on his $2.2 M cap hit as well.  Realistically, their cap hit will start with at least a 4 next season, meaning that if all stays the status quo, 40-48% of the team's cap hit will come from this group next year.  Knowing the current and looming situation with the forwards, this could be trouble.

Watch For

Expect the Habs to work feverishly to unload Spacek's deal while at the very least listening to any reasonable offer for Hamrlik.  If neither of them can be dealt, Gill may very well be on the move.  Regardless of the situation, Mara will most likely have a new home by Wednesday, especially knowing that there are defencemen in Hamilton who can help the cause if injuries arise for half the price.  In goal, unless there's an offer that blows GM Gauthier away, don't be surprised if this 'issue' doesn't get resolved until the offseason (the draft in particular).

Tomorrow: Part 2 - Forwards
Sunday: Part 3 - Bulldogs (as part of the HW Recap)





Also Read
- HW Recap: The deadline is upon us posted by B. La Rose
- HW Trade Deadline Preview: Part 2 posted by B. La Rose
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